ContributionsLegal difficulties · Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade · Law or tech?
ConversationWho will save the planet?
ContentGreenHouse, the climate game · online resources
GrammarLa plasticité de l’anglais : a carbon tax
ContributionsAmerica votesExit pollsGrammar
PROGRAMMETHIS WEEK
This week
01Your contributionsDirect democracy · Against more democracy · Votes at 162-pagers W06a · b · c · d
02ConversationIntuitions on the political situation
03America votesThe 2026 midtermsresults · exit polls · Trump and the new Congress
04GrammarTraining4 points · 15 minutes on your phone
01 · Contributions2-pagers
W06aA case for forms of more direct democracy.
W06bA case against more democracy.
W06cVotes at 16: the UK’s lowering of the voting age.
W06dSemi-free topic: the student’s own title, approved beforehand.
Tomorrow · L3S5
02 · Class ConversationIntuitions on the political situation
If you were to anticipate the next few years or decades, which developments come to your mind intuitively? Would you say you are more optimistic or pessimistic?
From a less personal point of view, what do you think are the defining traits of our era, what ideologies do you believe might hold power in the foreseeable future?
And democracy? Everyone, on everything? Who should be allowed to vote, who should be made to, and what should never be put to a vote?
03 · CONTENTTUESDAY 3 NOV.
America votes
The midterms
Congress, two years into Trump’s second term
435House seats35Senate seats36governors
Election night · 3 November 2026
03 · Video · Guardian News · 3 min 37Why do presidents dread the midterms?
03 · The starting point · before 3 Nov.Two chambers, one president
Wikipedia, 2026 House and Senate elections (as of 25 Oct.) · generic ballot: polling average, 25 Oct.
AP data · NBC News projections, 4 Nov., 8:45 a.m. Paris · count not finished: shares can still move · 2024: presidential result (Wikipedia) · photos: Wikimedia Commons · * incumbent
Three deep-red states, three Democratic senators.
Texas
Trump 2024: R+14→2026: D+10
Talarico 53.9% v. Paxton 44.2%
Same night: Gina Hinojosa beats Gov. Greg Abbott
Kansas
Trump 2024: R+16→2026: D+5
Hamilton 51.0% v. Marshall* 46.0%
Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, unseats Roger Marshall
South Carolina
Trump 2024: R+18→2026: D+4
Andrews 51.1% v. Graham* 46.7%
Andrews beats Darline Graham, appointed in July 2026 after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham
All three: Trump won them by double digits in 2024. Why would they switch?
03 · Results · countiesThe same wave everywhere
Jessie Blaeser, POLITICO, 4 Nov., 1:53 a.m. ET · AP results, counties more than 95% counted · Democratic share of the vote: 2024 president, 2026 Senate
In your opinion: did the Democrats gain more in blue counties or in red counties?
30%40%50%60%70%
Counties that voted Republican in the last four presidentials
+8.1 pts
Counties that voted Democratic in the last four presidentials
Red America and blue America moved by the same amount: about 8 points to the left.
03 · Exit pollsWho voted for whom?
Election day: thousands of voters fill in a questionnaire as they leave the polling station (and by phone, for early and postal voters).
Age, gender, race, education, income… and their vote.
Read each table: who moved, and in which direction?
Election day · in line to vote
03 · Exit poll · AgeThe young swing hardest
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
18–2911% of voters
2024
54
43
54–43
2026
72
25
2024 D+11D+472026+36 pts toward D
30–4420% of voters
2024
51
47
51–47
2026
60
36
2024 D+4D+242026+20 pts toward D
45–6434% of voters
2024
44
54
44–54
2026
51
47
2024 R+10D+42026+14 pts toward D
65 or older35% of voters
2024
49
50
49–50
2026
48
51
2024 R+1R+32026+2 pts toward R
Young voters: D+11 in 2024, D+47 in 2026. In your opinion: why them?
03 · Exit poll · GenderMen: from Trump +12 to a tie
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
Men46% of voters
2024
43
55
43–55
2026
49
49
2024 R+12tie2026+12 pts toward D
Women53% of voters
2024
53
45
53–45
2026
58
40
2024 D+8D+182026+10 pts toward D
Men moved more than women. Why?
03 · Exit poll · Gender by raceSix groups, one map
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicans2026 House vote · no 2024 comparison for this question
White men34% of voters
2026
43
55
R+122026
White women38% of voters
2026
51
47
D+42026
Black men4% of voters
2026
85
13
D+722026
Black women5% of voters
2026
92
6
D+862026
Latino men5% of voters
2026
56
41
D+152026
Latino women5% of voters
2026
66
31
D+352026
Which group is still closest to the Republicans?
03 · Exit poll · RaceLatino voters come back
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
White72% of voters
2024
42
57
42–57
2026
48
51
2024 R+15R+32026+12 pts toward D
Black9% of voters
2024
86
13
86–13
2026
89
9
2024 D+73D+802026+7 pts toward D
Latino10% of voters
2024
51
46
51–46
2026
62
35
2024 D+5D+272026+22 pts toward D
Asian4% of voters
2024
55
40
55–40
2026
70
29
2024 D+15D+412026+26 pts toward D
Other groups5% of voters
2024
41
55
41–55
2026
53
43
2024 R+14D+102026+24 pts toward D
Latino voters: D+5 in 2024, D+27 in 2026. What could explain it?
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
Education
College graduates47% of voters
2024
56
42
56–42
2026
62
36
2024 D+14D+262026+12 pts toward D
No college degree53% of voters
2024
43
56
43–56
2026
47
51
2024 R+13R+42026+9 pts toward D
Education by race
White, college degree35% of voters
2024
53
45
53–45
2026
59
40
2024 D+8D+192026+11 pts toward D
White, no degree37% of voters
2024
32
66
32–66
2026
37
61
2024 R+34R+242026+10 pts toward D
Voters of color, degree12% of voters
2024
65
32
65–32
2026
73
25
2024 D+33D+482026+15 pts toward D
Voters of color, no degree16% of voters
2024
64
34
64–34
2026
69
28
2024 D+30D+412026+11 pts toward D
A degree predicts a vote better than income does. Why?
03 · Exit poll · White votersWhite men without a degree: still Republican
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
White women, college degree18% of voters
2024
58
41
58–41
2026
63
36
2024 D+17D+272026+10 pts toward D
White women, no degree19% of voters
2024
35
63
35–63
2026
40
58
2024 R+28R+182026+10 pts toward D
White men, college degree16% of voters
2024
48
50
48–50
2026
54
44
2024 R+2D+102026+12 pts toward D
White men, no degree18% of voters
2024
29
69
29–69
2026
34
64
2024 R+40R+302026+10 pts toward D
Voters of color28% of voters
2024
64
33
64–33
2026
71
27
2024 D+31D+442026+13 pts toward D
Which group moved least since 2024?
03 · Exit poll · PlaceCity, suburb, small town
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicans2026 House vote · no 2024 comparison for this question
Urban20% of voters
2026
71
27
D+442026
Suburban45% of voters
2026
58
40
D+182026
Small town or rural35% of voters
2026
40
58
R+182026
Where is the Republican base now?
03 · Exit poll · ReligionFaith and the vote
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
Protestant / other Christian40% of voters
2024
36
63
36–63
2026
38
60
2024 R+27R+222026+5 pts toward D
Catholic21% of voters
2024
39
59
39–59
2026
48
50
2024 R+20R+22026+18 pts toward D
Jewish3% of voters
2024
78
22
78–22
2026
67
32
2024 D+56D+352026+21 pts toward R
Other religion10% of voters
2024
61
34
61–34
2026
65
32
2024 D+27D+332026+6 pts toward D
No religion26% of voters
2024
71
27
71–27
2026
77
21
2024 D+44D+562026+12 pts toward D
The largest group of Democratic voters: which one?
03 · Exit poll · IncomeRich and poor vote alike
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
Household income
Under $50,00027% of voters
2024
48
50
48–50
2026
56
41
2024 R+2D+152026+17 pts toward D
$50,000 or more73% of voters
2024
49
49
49–49
2026
53
45
2024 tieD+82026+8 pts toward D
Under $100,00058% of voters
2024
47
51
47–51
2026
54
44
2024 R+4D+102026+14 pts toward D
$100,000 or more42% of voters
2024
51
47
51–47
2026
54
44
2024 D+4D+102026+6 pts toward D
Income barely changes the vote. Surprised?
03 · Exit poll · The economyThe economy changes sides
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
Excellent2% of voters
2024
89
11
89–11
2026
6
94
2024 D+78R+882026+166 pts toward R
Good23% of voters
2024
92
7
92–7
2026
10
89
2024 D+85R+792026+164 pts toward R
Not so good39% of voters
2024
46
52
46–52
2026
55
43
2024 R+6D+122026+18 pts toward D
Poor35% of voters
2024
10
88
10–88
2026
84
13
2024 R+78D+712026+149 pts toward D
In 2024, voters who said “good” voted Democratic. Now they vote Republican. Why?
03 · Exit poll · Family financesWorse off? Blame the president
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals · 2026: compared to two years ago · 2024: compared to four years ago
DemocratsRepublicansthin bar: 2024, Harris v. Trump · thick bar: 2026, House vote · watch it slide from 2024 to 2026
Better off18% of voters
2024
83
14
83–14
2026
24
75
2024 D+69R+512026+120 pts toward R
Worse off44% of voters
2024
16
82
16–82
2026
74
24
2024 R+66D+502026+116 pts toward D
About the same38% of voters
2024
71
27
71–27
2026
45
53
2024 D+44R+82026+52 pts toward R
Who do voters blame when they feel poorer?
03 · Exit poll · PartyThe independents decide
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicans2026 House vote · no 2024 comparison for this question
Democrats34% of voters
2026
98
2
D+962026
Republicans33% of voters
2026
6
93
R+872026
Independents33% of voters
2026
56
39
D+172026
Who won the independents, and by how much?
03 · Exit poll · 2024 voteWho switched?
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicans2026 House vote · no 2024 comparison for this question
Voted Harris in 202448% of voters
2026
97
2
D+952026
Voted Trump in 202445% of voters
2026
7
92
R+852026
Did not vote in 20244% of voters
2026
69
25
D+442026
7% of Trump voters voted Democratic. Is that a lot?
03 · Exit poll · AINobody wants a data center
2026: NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), House vote, 4 Nov. · 2024: CNN exit poll, Harris v. Trump · two different polls: compare the trends, not the decimals
DemocratsRepublicans2026 House vote · no 2024 comparison for this question
Favor a new data center in their community24% of voters
2026
27
72
R+452026
Oppose it76% of voters
2026
63
35
D+282026
Would you want a data center in your town?
03 · Your turn · on your phoneWhat made the difference?
Pick up to three: what decided last night’s vote?
PricesTariffsGas pricesGroceriesHealthcare costsHousingJobsTaxesTrump himselfDemocracyCorruptionICE raidsImmigrationThe war in IranAbortionAI and data centersCrimeThe Supreme CourtYoung votersLatino votersWomen votersTurnoutStrong candidatesRedrawn mapsThe cost of livingElectricity billsSocial SecurityMedicaid cutsThe stock marketElon Musk’s moneyTransgender rightsGunsClimateElection fairnessFirst-time votersIndependentsInflationInterest ratesStudent debtChildcareEducationIsrael and GazaFree speechPolarizationSocial mediaMisinformationRural votersSuburban womenBlack votersCampaign ads
03 · Exit poll · why they votedA verdict on Trump?
NBC News national exit poll (SSRS), 4 Nov. · share of all voters
In your opinion: what share of voters said they voted to oppose Trump?
43%voted to oppose Trump16% to support him · 40%: Trump “not a factor”
62%disapprove of Trump’s job as president38% approve
62%blame higher prices on Trump’s policies38%: factors outside his control
39% · 32%top issue: the economy · the state of democracyimmigration 14% · healthcare 8%
03 · After the voteTrump and the new Congress
Seats: AP data, NBC News projections, 4 Nov., 8:45 a.m. Paris · grey: not called yet · powers: U.S. Constitution, art. I and II
House · 435
227 D · 142 R
The White HousePresident TrumpRepublican · until January 2029
Senate · 100
54 D · 43 R
The budgetEvery spending bill starts in the House
OversightCommittees investigate and subpoena
NominationsJudges and ministers need the Senate
ImpeachmentHouse: a majority · removal: 67 senators
The vetoTrump can block a law · override: two-thirds of both chambers
What will change for Trump? Name one thing he can no longer do alone.
03 · After the voteWhat happens next?
U.S. Constitution, 20th and 22nd Amendments
3 Jan. 2027The new Congress sitsDemocrats chair every committee in both chambers
2027The budgetEvery spending bill must pass a Democratic House
2027InvestigationsCommittees can subpoena the administration
2027–28NominationsJudges and ministers need a Democratic Senate
7 Nov. 2028The next presidential electionTrump cannot run again: two terms only
20 Jan. 2029A new presidentInauguration day
What will the Democrats do first with their majority?
W06TAKEAWAYS
What to remember
1 · The midterms
Democrats take both chambers: House 227–142 so far (255 projected), Senate 54–43 with 3 races left. Seven Senate seats flip, from Maine to Texas.
2 · Who voted
The young moved most: D+11 in 2024, D+47 in 2026. Men: from Trump +12 to a tie. Latino voters: D+5 to D+27.
3 · Age
Votes at 16: through the Commons, 411–102 (Sept. 2026). The Lords now.
4 · The rules
Who draws the map, who may vote, who must vote: the rules decide before the voters do.
Words · the midterms · a swing · turnout · an exit poll · a ballot · to flip a seat · gerrymandering · to enfranchise Debating · I’d argue that… · Fair point, but… · Playing devil’s advocate…
04 · GRAMMARTRAINING
Before the quiz
Training
Four points · fifteen minutes · on your phone
The night before the quiz
04 · Training · 1 / 4L’ordre des adjectifs
Plus l’adjectif est intrinsèque, plus il est proche du nomopinion · taille · âge · forme · couleur · origine · matière · type → NOM
an uncomfortableleather chairopinion → matière
a successfulcorporate lawyeropinion → type
an importantoldAmerican treatyopinion → âge → origine
04 · Training · 2 / 4La portée de l’adverbe
L’adverbe porte sur ce qui le suitONLY · EVEN · JUST · ALSO : placez-les juste avant ce qu’ils modifient
Only the judge saw the file.personne d’autre ne l’a vu
The judge only saw the file.il l’a vu, sans plus
The judge saw only the file.il n’a vu que le dossier
04 · Training · 3 / 4Les verbes à particule
Verbe + particule = un nouveau sensUP, DOWN, OUT, INTO, BY… changent ou précisent le sens du verbe
to abide by a rulingrespecter une décision
to draw up a contract · to hand down a verdictrédiger · rendre
to look into a complaint · to throw out a caseexaminer · rejeter
04 · Training · 4 / 4La plasticité de l’anglais
Nom + nom : le dernier commandeLISEZ DE DROITE À GAUCHE · le premier nom reste au singulier
a carbon tax · a ten-year planune taxe sur le carbone · un plan sur dix ans
The White HousePresident TrumpRepublican · until January 2029